Alberta will probably hit its peak of COVID-19 infections in May, according to Premier Jason Kenney.
In a televised address this evening (April 7), Kenney shared Alberta Health鈥檚 current projections about the COVID-19 threat to public health.
He said the province has two models for how the outbreak could look: a probable scenario and an elevated one.
Under the 鈥減robable scenario,鈥� it is projected that Alberta will hit the peak of infections in mid-May.
From the beginning of the outbreak to the end of summer we could see as many as 800,000 infections, and between 400 and 3,100 deaths, Kenney said.
And under the more serious but less likely 鈥渆levated scenario,鈥� Alberta would see infections peak at the beginning of May, with as many as one million infections, and between 500 and 6,600 deaths.
鈥淚 know that these numbers can be overwhelming,鈥� said Kenney. 鈥淏ut these models are not a done deal.
鈥淚 want Albertans to see them as a challenge. Perhaps the greatest challenge of our generation.
鈥淭hose numbers are not inevitable. How this actually plays out 鈥� how many people are infected, how many die, whether we overwhelm our healthcare system 鈥� all of that depends on us and our choices.鈥�
As of tonight, 1,373 Albertans have tested positive for COVID-19. There are 42 hospitalized, and 26 have died.
Kenney said Alberta鈥檚 per capita number of recorded infections is the second highest in Canada - after Quebec - but that is partly because Alberta has one the highest levels of COVID-19 testing per capita in the world.
And the rate of Albertans hospitalized with COVID-19 鈥� and those in an ICU 鈥� is much lower than the other large provinces, Ontario, Quebec and BC.
But Alberta鈥檚 鈥渃urve鈥�, the rate at which the infection is growing, is 鈥渕uch lower than many other parts of the world鈥�.
Kenney said so far, Alberta鈥檚 curve more closely resembles countries that have successfully fought the virus, like South Korea, than the sharp upward rise seen in countries like Italy, Spain, and the United States.
But he warned that things could get much worse if Albertans do not continue to follow the public health orders around social distancing and personal hygiene.
鈥淭he key strategy in our plan to defeat the coronavirus is this: to push down that peak of infections as much as we can, while pulling up the capacity of our health care system to cope,鈥� said Kenney.
He said experts projected that if Alberta had no social distancing and public health orders in place, the province could experience as many as 1.6 million infections, and 32,000 deaths in Alberta 鈥� as many as 640 deaths per day.
鈥淥ur health system would collapse under the chaos of that scenario,鈥� said Kenney.
鈥淎lbertans won鈥檛 let that happen. Period.鈥�
