Ahead of the 96th on March 10, Associated Press Film Writers and share their predictions.
BEST PICTURE
Nominees: 鈥淎merican Fiction鈥�; 鈥淎natomy of a Fall鈥�; 鈥淏arbie鈥�; 鈥淭he Holdovers鈥�; 鈥淜illers of the Flower Moon鈥�; 鈥淢aestro鈥�; 鈥淥ppenheimer鈥�; 鈥淧ast Lives鈥�; 鈥淧oor Things鈥�; 鈥淭he Zone of Interest.鈥�
BAHR: It will be 鈥� ." It's not just because it's won : This is a recognition that鈥檚 a long time coming for and , who have been nominated for best picture twice before, for 鈥淚nception鈥� and 鈥淒unkirk,鈥� but whose influence and impact on the industry and even the Oscars has extended far beyond a simple nomination tally (including leading a charge to save film). But perhaps it was worth the wait to get this moment with a film like 鈥� ."
COYLE: It鈥檚 鈥淥ppenheimer鈥� all the way, and the only question is how many awards it ultimately walks away with. (I鈥檒l say eight.) But let鈥檚 hear it for one of the best best-picture fields in recent memory. There鈥檚 not really a clunker in the mix this year. The nominees run from epic to indie, blockbuster to arthouse. You鈥檝e got more comedy than usual, too, including 鈥淏arbie鈥� and her wicked twin, 鈥淧oor Things.鈥�
BEST ACTRESS
Nominees: Annette Bening, 鈥淣yad鈥�; Lily Gladstone, 鈥淜illers of the Flower Moon鈥�; Sandra H眉ller, 鈥淎natomy of a Fall鈥�; Carey Mulligan, 鈥淢aestro鈥�; Emma Stone, 鈥淧oor Things.鈥�
COYLE: On a night that should be kinda predictable, this is going to a nail-biter. (鈥淜illers of the Flower Moon鈥�) and Emma Stone (鈥淧oor Things鈥�) are seemingly in a dead heat, with odds-makers splitting them evenly. I鈥檓 going to give the edge to Gladstone, who鈥檚 coming off a big win at and has history riding on her potential victory. She would be the first Native American to win an Oscar, a prospect that 鈥淪aturday Night Live鈥� joked has her fellow nominees saying, 鈥淧lease don鈥檛 let us win.鈥� Stone, though, is absurdly good in 鈥淧oor Things鈥� and her chances can鈥檛 be dismissed. She won at the BAFTAs and international Oscar voters are increasingly tilting close races.
BAHR: You know it鈥檚 a tough year when the other three very accomplished and utterly committed performances aren鈥檛 even in the conversation. I want Gladstone to win, but something is telling me that Stone is going to be the one up that stage (and no, it鈥檚 not Searchlight or her publicists whispering in my ear).
BEST ACTOR
Nominees: Bradley Cooper, 鈥淢aestro鈥�; Colman Domingo, 鈥淩ustin鈥�; Paul Giamatti, 鈥淭he Holdovers鈥�; Cillian Murphy, 鈥淥ppenheimer鈥�; Jeffrey Wright, 鈥淎merican Fiction.鈥�
BAHR: This is going to be one of the bigger hold your breath moments on Oscars night as we wait to hear if best actor goes to or . Neither have won this award before and both gave undeniably great and memorable performances, both of which involved copious drinking and different kinds of regret, but only one of which gave the actor the chance to melodically slur 鈥淢onet, Manet, Picasso鈥� and then, well, fart. I do think that Murphy, who has not won any Oscars, caught the wave, however, and will get the trophy for his singularly internal portrayal of an impossibly complex giant.
COYLE: As much as we鈥檇 all like to see a knock-down, drag-it-out fight between Murphy and Giamatti 鈥� two famously nice guys and much-admired character actors getting a leading-man moment 鈥� that tete-a-tete just never materialized. Murphy won at both the SAGs and the BAFTAs, and I think the 鈥淥ppenheimer鈥� headwinds are just too strong for Giamatti to pull it off.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nominees: Emily Blunt, 鈥淥ppenheimer鈥�; Danielle Brooks, 鈥淭he Color Purple鈥�; America Ferrera, 鈥淏arbie鈥�; Jodie Foster, 鈥淣yad鈥�; Da鈥橵ine Joy Randolph, 鈥淭he Holdovers.鈥�
COYLE: This race has been a lock for months, making Randolph all but certain to cruise to her first Academy Award. Out of the three pitch-perfect performances in (the others being Giamatti and newcomer Dominic Sessa), the sensitivity of Randolph鈥檚 grieving mother has made her an Oscar shoo-in.
BAHR: Indeed, and let鈥檚 hope that whoever is reading the winner card gets the pronunciation of her name correctly (unlike some others this season). Psst鈥t鈥檚 .
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Nominees: Sterling K. Brown, 鈥淎merican Fiction鈥�; Robert De Niro, 鈥淜illers of the Flower Moon鈥�; Robert Downey Jr. 鈥淥ppenheimer鈥�; Ryan Gosling, 鈥淏arbie鈥�; Mark Ruffalo, 鈥淧oor Things.鈥�
BAHR: It鈥檚 just going to be an 鈥淥ppenheimer鈥� night and we can all assume that . will be the one bounding up to the stage to accept. The last time he was nominated was in 2008, for 鈥淭ropic Thunder,鈥� and his win will not just be for playing the vindictive Lewis Strauss but, kind of like Jamie Lee Curtis last year, an overdue acknowledgement of his lifetime in entertainment. Plus, he gives good speech and I鈥檓 sure he鈥檚 saving the best for last.
COYLE: Honestly, what a strong group of nominees. Downey will win his first Oscar, which no one would say he doesn鈥檛 deserve (though I would have handed it to him for 鈥淜iss Kiss Bang Bang鈥�). De Niro, almost half a century after winning this award for a little movie called 鈥淭he Godfather, Part II,鈥� is back again, doing his best work in years. Brown, who gives such a jolt, is as good as anyone working today. Ruffalo, great in everything, should someday soon get the 鈥渙verdue Oscar鈥� treatment Downey is receiving this year. And Gosling might be our best comic actor. He鈥檚 going to lose but only because his Ken is TOO good.
BEST DIRECTOR
Nominees: 鈥淎natomy of a Fall,鈥� Justine Triet; 鈥淜illers of the Flower Moon,鈥� Martin Scorsese; 鈥淥ppenheimer,鈥� Christopher Nolan; 鈥淧oor Things,鈥� Yorgos Lanthimos; 鈥淭he Zone of Interest,鈥� Jonathan Glazer.
COYLE: : I feel like there鈥檚 someone missing here? Yes, this is the site of , for 鈥淏arbie鈥� director Greta Gerwig. Gosling may still be , but the hubbub has mostly subsided. (Still, Gerwig should have been nominated.) Either way, this is Nolan鈥檚 award, for sure. It will be his first directing Oscar, a belated coronation for . To see how seldom these chances can be, you need look no further than fellow-nominee Scorsese. He's only won it once. (Cue Gosling shriek.)
BAHR: It鈥檚 such a great group, even so. And Nolan will surely be walking to the engraving station with this trophy in hand as well.
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Nominees: 鈥淏obi Wine: The People鈥檚 President鈥�; 鈥淭he Eternal Memory鈥�; 鈥淔our Daughters鈥�; 鈥淭o Kill a Tiger鈥�; 鈥�20 Days in Mariupol.鈥�
BAHR: It鈥檚 a bit funny to talk about a film made by your colleagues, but it鈥檚 not hard when it鈥檚 something as great as Mstyslav Chernov鈥檚 鈥� 鈥� which is both an incredible documentary and the clear frontrunner in the category. It鈥檚 already won a BAFTA and a DGA. It missed the PGA to a film that wasn鈥檛 nominated for an Oscar (鈥淎merican Symphony鈥�). It is difficult to watch, but that鈥檚 the point: This is a film that bears witness to the horrible things you might want to look away from 鈥� urgent, timely and already an essential historical document of an atrocity that is ongoing.
COYLE: This awards season has been marked by the almost total absence of on-stage mention of the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. The great exception to that is the sober reportage contained within 鈥�20 Days in Mariupol,鈥� which harrowingly documents the early days of Russia鈥檚 invasion of Ukraine. It should be noted, too, that this award a year ago went to the intimate portrait of
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
Nominees: 鈥淚o Capitano,鈥� Italy; 鈥淧erfect Days,鈥� Japan; 鈥淪ociety of the Snow,鈥� Spain; 鈥淭he Teachers鈥� Lounge,鈥� Germany; 鈥淭he Zone of Interest,鈥� United Kingdom.
COYLE: This is sure to go to 鈥淭he Zone of Interest,鈥� Jonathan Glazer鈥檚 It鈥檚 a best-picture nominee, which speaks to the academy鈥檚 high regard for the movie. 鈥� the sublime Finnish film which was shortlisted 鈥� would have been my pick, though. Or easily the best film about a Tokyo toilet cleaner you鈥檒l ever see.
BAHR: This is always the cruelest category, in which all of international cinema is whittled down to five nominees. Why not 10 here as well? And, you鈥檙e right, when an international film also gets a best picture nomination you can usually safely bet that it鈥檒l win this award at the very least. But even an Oscar seems too small for something like Glazer鈥檚 triumph. To quote a friend: 鈥溾�橳he Zone of Interest鈥� feels more like a museum piece than a work of entertainment.鈥�
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Nominees: 鈥淭he Boy and the Heron鈥�; 鈥淓lemental鈥�; 鈥淣imona鈥�; 鈥淩obot Dreams鈥�; 鈥淪pider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.鈥�
BAHR: Unlike many years in the animated feature category, most of these films are richly deserving of the recognition. 鈥淪pider-Man: Across the Spider Verse鈥� is probably the favorite, but because the first one already won the prize I鈥檓 going with Hayao Miyazaki鈥檚 鈥� .鈥� Miyazaki does have two Oscars, a competitive one for 鈥淪pirited Away鈥� and a honorary trophy from the academy鈥檚 Board of Governors. Still, whether this is his last film or not (he keeps teasing), it would be one of those can鈥檛 miss moments especially since he wasn鈥檛 there to accept the award for 鈥淪pirited Away鈥� on the 2003 telecast (his way of protesting the Iraq War).
COYLE: This comes down to either 鈥淭he Boy and the Heron鈥� or I love them both, but I鈥檓 going to go with the 鈥淪pider-Verse鈥� sequel. It triumphed at the Annie Awards, a strong precursor, and blew the doors off what The 2018 original also won this award, so a victory for 鈥淎cross the Spider-Verse鈥� would be the first time the first two movies in a franchise won best animated film.
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Lindsey Bahr And Jake Coyle, The Associated Press
